Five Indian soldiers were killed Aug 6 in Poonch district along the LoC- it is the same area where an Indian soldier was killed and decapitated in a similar ambush in January. These two flare-ups on the Line of Control, roughly six months apart, played out almost identically. The militants dressed in Pakistani army uniform carried out the attacks; Pakistan denied the allegations and in fact levelled a counter charge of cross-border incursions by Indian forces. The peace track suffered as a result.
Five Indian soldiers were killed Aug 6 in Poonch district along the LoC- it is the same area where an Indian soldier was killed and decapitated in a similar ambush in January.
These two flare-ups on the Line of Control, roughly six months apart, played out almost identically. The militants dressed in Pakistani army uniform carried out the attacks; Pakistan denied the allegations and in fact levelled a counter charge of cross-border incursions by Indian forces. The peace track suffered as a result.
One thing is clear as of now. Regardless of whether India engages in a dialogue with the Pakistani leadership, India will likely face a higher threat of attacks in the coming months and years as militant flows in the region adjust to a U.S. exit from Afghanistan, as Stratfor points out.
Both sides still have plenty of reason to maintain that line of communication and avoid significant state to state confrontation, but a credible and substantial peace negotiation that adequately addresses India’s core security concerns over Pakistan-based militancy is probably out of the question for the present.
Many of the constraints to the peace process can be traced back to the situation in Afghanistan. As Taliban leadership continues their efforts to carve out a prominent political space in Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal, Pakistan is working to ensure Islamabad’s influence in Kabul grows in parallel with the Taliban.
While Pakistan tries to shape the political evolution in Afghanistan, it will also need to manage a festering domestic jihadist insurgency at home as militants search for new battlefronts. Pakistan will have a lot on its plate, but it will have a better chance of success if it can manage to also downgrade its long-standing conflict with India by at least engaging in peace talks.
But India is legitimately concerned that a shift in militant focus from Afghanistan will raise the threat of militant activity in Kashmir. India is in fact getting hit on both ends of Pakistan. Just two days before the cross-border attack that killed five Indian soldiers, the Indian Consulate in Jalalabad was hit by suspected Pakistani militants.
Evidently, there are multiple elements intent on derailing negotiations between Pakistan and India, as well as between Pakistan and Kabul. Now, India can try to hold Pakistan accountable for these attacks, but it also can’t avoid the question of whether Pakistan, in its current distracted and fractured state, would be able to enforce any security commitments it makes.