"There can be no denying that former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah has reasons to feel cheated for the second time, the first being in 2009, but he is not showing any bitterness as US-trained economist, and former World Bank official Ashraf Ghani is set to succeed Hamid Karzai after two terms as President".
So finally a power sharing agreement is in place in Afghanistan between the two contenders for the post of President. It is a complex arrangement with no parallels but it will enable the US to take its next logical step towards withdrawal of bulk of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in the blood soaked country.
There can be no denying that former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah has reasons to feel cheated for the second time, the first being in 2009, but he is not showing any bitterness as US-trained economist, and former World Bank official Ashraf Ghani is set to succeed Hamid Karzai after two terms as President.
A fall out of today’s announcement is that the final tally of votes polled and secured by rival candidates would never be declared officially. Technically speaking it defeats the very sanctity of the election but then the prevailing situation is not picture perfect democratic setting either. At a joint press conference on Sunday in the capital Kabul, Ghani, Abdullah and Karzai each declared their support for the arrangement.
During the election, several ethnic Pashtun warlords in southern and eastern Afghanistan supported Ghani. So did the ethnic Uzbek strongman Abdul Rashid Dostum. Abdullah’s main support base, like in the past, this time also came from the predominantly ethnic Tajik regions in the north and the west or what are known as the strongholds of the former Northern Alliance, besides some pockets of ethnic Pashtuns in the South.
After Ghani is sworn in as President, Abdullah will become the “chief executive,” of the government knowing full well that his vaguely defined role has inherent potential to make the Secretary of State Kerry – brokered deal highly fragile. For Kerry, however, the satisfaction will be that the new leadership would facilitate the signing of the agreement on “status of forces”, which has remained in the works for long largely because of outgoing President’s objections. It is no secret that President Karzai had refused to sign the deal and had in fact turned critical of the US in the recent months.
For the US, the new pact is of immense importance. It will enable the US – led NATO forces to operate with impunity in Afghanistan after the ops by international forces end. A 5,000- to 7,000-strong ISAF will remain, however, military force, positioned at places like Bagram Air Base, in the defence of Kabul.
The negotiations for power sharing deal started in right earnest in July even as the presidential ballot was stuck in the quagmire of bogus votes. Abdullah had alleged that the Ghani camp rigged the election and that as many as two million to eight million bogus votes were cast. Ghani camp denied the charge but failed to carry conviction with the result that Abdullah camp had threatened to hit the streets, and thus forced a recount.
Secretary of State Kerry used the opening to iron out the final agreement under which the winner at the end of recount would become the President while the loser ends up as de facto Prime Minister with executive powers. The Constitution would be amended to give de jure status to the deal that officially marks the end of the road for International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) which entered Afghanistan thirteen years ago to drive out the Taliban regime supported by Al-Qaeda.
How effectively the Afghan Army would manage the post-US withdrawal phase remains unclear. What is clear is that the ISI-supported Afghan Taliban operating from its safe havens in Pakistan’s North and South Waziristan will step up their attacks. Already there has been an upsurge in such attacks which are becoming daring enterprises with every passing day, targeting the Afghan forces and government offices alike. There are reports that large swath of Helmand in South Afghanistan has slipped once again into the Taliban.
A worry for the incoming Ghani government will be the state of near bankruptcy of the treasury. There is not enough money to pay salaries. Well, you cannot blame the outgoing Karzai government for the poor financial health of the country. The past decade was one of holding operation in the face of Taliban insurgency and the government relied heavily on foreign doles. The inflow of aid was never in synch with the donor pledges and this in turn had created its own hiccups.
Compounding matters was the tendency of some countries notably the US t use aid as a tool for political trade-offs. And rural economy is still opium driven, accounting for some 75 percent of the world’s illegal opium estimated at 5.5 million kilograms. This raises the spectre of a narco-criminal state emerging unless President Ghani puts his act together quickly.