Afghanistan elects new Parliament on Saturday

Ballot boxes at the Afghan poll body warehouse in Kabul

Will the vote be imperfect? While the verdict should await the declarations of results, the so called imperfections should not be allowed to colour the view. Any value judgment should factor in the realities. It should not discount the general enthusiasm among the people to send their representatives to Parliament.

Afghanistan votes for a new Wolesi Jirga, the lower house of parliament on October 17. While the results for the 249-seat house will not be available till early next month, how imperfect or perfect the polling is will be known by mid-day itself. The NATO, which is charged with the responsibility of ensuring peaceful poll and the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, an independent organization that monitors the elections, are keeping their fingers crossed. The mood in the independent Election Commission is no different with the Taliban having held out open threats to the voters, and the country being witness to widespread violence since a Florida pastor hit the headlines with his audacious plan to burn the Quran to mark the 9/11 anniversary. 

Frankly, Afghanistan needs no provocation for a round of firing at day break, sun set or mid-night. The country is awash with fire arms. And the sturdy, uncompromising Afghans have been living in a climate of pervasive violence for as long as they can remember.

As the voting day neared, the Taliban, which ruled the country till 9/11 happened, has gone into an overdrive to drive home its message. It has  publicly denounced the election, the second in about a year- the country re-elected President Hamid Karzai last year- as a farce orchestrated by Americans and Karzai's ‘stooge administration’. It asked the people to stay away from the polling booths, cautioning them of election-day strikes.

More than 2,500 candidates are in the fray, most of them standing from the so called safe constituencies in and around Kabul. The result is fierce competition in the safest and most populated provinces. Some sitting members from what have been identified as insecure provinces, like Kandahar for instance have moved to the well fortified constituencies in and around the capital instead. So, Kabul has about 660 candidates vying for 33 seats. Heart, another much sought after safe belt, has 151 candidates for 17 seats.

The difference between safe and insecure areas is simple. In more secure areas, there are likely to be large numbers of election observers and it will reduce the chances of wholesale fraud. By this logic, the insecure areas will be the most vulnerable to systematic fraud. Guess estimate is at least one million in this nation of 32 million stand disenfranchised because they live in areas deemed dangerous for polling to take place. Put differently, with few people venturing out of their homes, local war lords and power brokers will have a field day in such areas.

Will the vote be imperfect as a result? While the verdict should await the declarations of results, the so called imperfections should not be allowed to colour the view. Any value judgment should factor in the realities. It should not discount the general enthusiasm among the people to send their representatives to Parliament. Staffan de Mistura, the head of the United Nations mission in Afghanistan, stuck the right note when he told reporters in Kabul this past week, ‘We are feeling that these elections are going to be much better than the previous ones’.

The general expectation is that the October 17 ballot will be marred by bloodshed and fraud.  The Taliban have left letters outside hundreds of mosques, warning locals not to go to the polls, and threatened violence against anyone taking part. Independent poll monitors say at least 20 campaigners were killed so far. The monitors also registered 200 episodes of intimidation particularly in provinces like Kandahar, which are the most vulnerable for fraud.

NATO troops are braced for Taliban attacks, the Daily Telegraph reported Sept 15 quoting a British commander. Sounding realistic, Major General Nick Carter, who commands NATO troops in southern Afghanistan, said “the insurgency will have a go on election day. I just hope they don't do as well as they did last year”. He added ‘I am not, and never have been from my time in Afghanistan, optimistic’.  More than 1,000 of the 6,800 polling centres have been shut down on security grounds.

Afghan authorities are also worried of likely rigging of the election. Pakistani printers have gone into an overdrive to churn out fake Afghan voter registration cards in thousands. The Washington Post reported on Sept 16 that the influx of fake cards raised the possibility of a person with multiple voter cards voting many times. These cards cost roughly Pakistan Rupees 20 apiece in Peshawar

Afghan election officials are quoted in media dispatches as saying that they have instituted safeguards that will keep falsified cards from being used. Marking voters' fingers with indelible ink, searching voters to make sure they are not carrying multiple cards and checking to make sure they are old enough to vote are some of the precautions taken, according to Abdullah Ahmadzai, who heads the Independent Election Commission, which is conducting the election.  Fake voter problem was faced in the presidential elections held last year as well. ‘We threw out a third of the votes (in the Prez election)’, he recalled.  

Organised plans for rigging bring back the spotlight on Pakistan and its vested interests beyond the Durand Line. How successful Pakistan is will be known only early October.  In the meantime pollsters are busy in their guessing game whether the new Parliament would be a rubber stamp to President Karzai or be an independent force like the outgoing house that will dare to challenge the government and block the presidential nominees for ministerial posts.