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Maois leader Prachanda and out-going Premier Madhav Kumar Nepal
A consensus amongst the three main parties (NC, UML, and the Maoists) alone will ensure the two-thirds majority required for adopting the statute. It is not easy to achieve with all energies in the next few days focussed on consensus on who should lead the government and on what should be the share of ministerial berths
As the people celebrated Maghi Samkranti, the harvest festival on Jan 15 with a holy dip in rivers and tanks braving the cold wave, politicians kick started the process of getting down to the business of running the country under the Interim Constitution. The first step in the direction was the three-point agreement between the caretaker government and the Maoists on continuing the peace process after the United Nations Mission in Nepal winds up its operations in the country.
Given the mood in the country, this is not the time to apportion blame. The Maoists with their unadulterated communist doctrinarian approach to men and matters, when the people had denied them the sole right to rule the country, and the Nepali Congress with its own blinkered vision contributed no less to push the country to near precipice for seven months. With broad contours of the government in the wings still not being clear, it is difficult to hazard a guess on what next. Some clarity will be available after President Dr Ram Baran Yadav formally calls on Parliament to form the new government as stipulated under Article 38 (1) of the Interim Constitution.
The outgoing Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal met Dr Yadav at Sital Niwas, the Presidential House on the Maghi Samkranti evening. True to his nature, he made no recommendation to the President, and thereby saved the political field from turning murky. His party, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), UML, as the third largest in Parliament will have a decisive say in facilitating consensus. Probably, Madhav Nepal hopes to play a longer political innings by cashing in on the goodwill he had earned in recent months.
The Maoists had made him resign on June 30, hoping to have their way and say but the calculation had misfired, like their threat of street politics. The endless rounds of balloting to elect a new Prime Minister did not give any brownie points to them. The Nepali Congress also did not benefit either. And when finally on January 13, its Parliamentary Party leader Ramchandra Paudel withdrew from the 17th prime ministerial run-off, the Himalayan Times captured the mood of the nation in its headline: ‘Nepali Congress yields to everyone's wishes’.
NC could have asked Paudel to retire from the race much earlier. It did not. It waited till seventeen fringe parties in the 601-member Parliament openly exerted pressure by sending a formal appeal to ‘end the meaningless election joke’. Obviously, it has not read the political pulse correctly. UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal had pulled out of the race from the first round held on July 21. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ bowed out a week before the eighth run-off on September 26. Had the 17th round been held, Paudel would have lost with 350 voting against him.
Interestingly enough, the changes in Kathmandu scene started unfolding after a visit to India by senior Maoist and NC leaders in the first week of the New Year. Ostensibly, the visit was to take part in a conference at the India Habitat Centre, (IHC) one of the most happening venues in the Indian capital. Nepali leaders used the occasion to meet a cross section of their friends and well wishers in Indian political parties and the Indian media. There is no official word on their visit though. The enigmatic silence will be interpreted differently in different time zones.
India’s primary concern is healthy growth of democratic traditions and practices and an impetus to the peace process so that the people’s longing for peace and progress is fulfilled. The process got derailed when the Maoists tried to hijack the mandate to achieve what appeared as a hidden agenda at the cost of the peace agreement that had brought them into the mainstream of Nepali politics in 2006. The Maoist leadership played the anti-India card also. It did not come as a surprise since a section of Kathmandu the King including have been using the card for domestic political advantage. What compounded the Maoists’ problems were their unwillingness to severe links with their armed cadres and also their insistence on rehabilitating them in the armed forces. Tilting towards the north also did them in given the traditional sentiment in such matters.
Now it is to be seen how much flexibility Maoist supremo Prachanda will display on these and related issues, which are complex and inter related. The UN mission failed because the Maoists did not play by the rules of the game and left issues like armed and unarmed cadre strength very vague. The Special Committee that is taking over the functions of the UNMIN under the Maoist-Government accord has a tough task as it settles to monitor Maoist arms and armies and arms of the Nepali Army.
The committee’s mandate is to complete the unfinished UNMIN job in four-five months. Its success rests solely on the Maoists who have agreed to put their People's Liberation Army (PLA) with its nearly 20,000 fighters under the Special Committee along with their arms. On its part the government has pledged to let the army under the surveillance of the panel. A 64-member team, comprising 16 people each from the army, police and armed police force and the PLA will replace the UNMIN monitors at the PLA camps and army barracks.
There is no clarity on the future of PLA at present. Middle Path could be adopted with some going into the army depending on their qualifications and the rest becoming members of a new paramilitary force. It is because whatever be the political compulsions and extraneous considerations, the basic standards of the Nepalese army cannot be diluted.
Nepal has been without a government since June last year. It may not materialise till the end of this month (January). That means Nepali leadership will have to grapple with the complexities of constitution drafting rather quickly to stick to the deadline of May 28. It appears certain that this deadline will be missed.
A consensus amongst the three main parties (NC, UML, and the Maoists) alone will ensure the two-thirds majority required for adopting the statute. It is not easy to achieve with all energies in the next few days focussed on consensus on who should lead the government and on what should be the share of ministerial berths. Already, the Maoist party is staking claim to leadership of the government saying that as the single largest party it is their right.
Nepal needs a decentralized power within a federal structure to address the aspirations of ethnic and marginalized groups. Both the NC and the CPN-UML have actively participated in drafting a federal model in the Constituent Assembly. But both parties face stiff resistance from within to the federal model. They may not be able to backtrack notwithstanding popular opposition to ethnic federalism since it would be an invitation to another round of chaos. Terai based ethnic and regional groups have already threatened to hit the protest button.
Balancing the interests of these groups and the concern of dominant caste groups like the Brahmins and Chhetris, who fear losing out under the new constitutional dispensation will call for a great deal of flexibility.
Given the mood in the country, this is not the time to apportion blame. The Maoists with their unadulterated communist doctrinarian approach to men and matters, when the people had denied them the sole right to rule the country, and the Nepali Congress with its own blinkered vision contributed no less to push the country to near precipice for seven months. With broad contours of the government in the wings still not being clear, it is difficult to hazard a guess on what next. Some clarity will be available after President Dr Ram Baran Yadav formally calls on Parliament to form the new government as stipulated under Article 38 (1) of the Interim Constitution.
The outgoing Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal met Dr Yadav at Sital Niwas, the Presidential House on the Maghi Samkranti evening. True to his nature, he made no recommendation to the President, and thereby saved the political field from turning murky. His party, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), UML, as the third largest in Parliament will have a decisive say in facilitating consensus. Probably, Madhav Nepal hopes to play a longer political innings by cashing in on the goodwill he had earned in recent months.
The Maoists had made him resign on June 30, hoping to have their way and say but the calculation had misfired, like their threat of street politics. The endless rounds of balloting to elect a new Prime Minister did not give any brownie points to them. The Nepali Congress also did not benefit either. And when finally on January 13, its Parliamentary Party leader Ramchandra Paudel withdrew from the 17th prime ministerial run-off, the Himalayan Times captured the mood of the nation in its headline: ‘Nepali Congress yields to everyone's wishes’.
NC could have asked Paudel to retire from the race much earlier. It did not. It waited till seventeen fringe parties in the 601-member Parliament openly exerted pressure by sending a formal appeal to ‘end the meaningless election joke’. Obviously, it has not read the political pulse correctly. UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal had pulled out of the race from the first round held on July 21. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ bowed out a week before the eighth run-off on September 26. Had the 17th round been held, Paudel would have lost with 350 voting against him.
Interestingly enough, the changes in Kathmandu scene started unfolding after a visit to India by senior Maoist and NC leaders in the first week of the New Year. Ostensibly, the visit was to take part in a conference at the India Habitat Centre, (IHC) one of the most happening venues in the Indian capital. Nepali leaders used the occasion to meet a cross section of their friends and well wishers in Indian political parties and the Indian media. There is no official word on their visit though. The enigmatic silence will be interpreted differently in different time zones.
India’s primary concern is healthy growth of democratic traditions and practices and an impetus to the peace process so that the people’s longing for peace and progress is fulfilled. The process got derailed when the Maoists tried to hijack the mandate to achieve what appeared as a hidden agenda at the cost of the peace agreement that had brought them into the mainstream of Nepali politics in 2006. The Maoist leadership played the anti-India card also. It did not come as a surprise since a section of Kathmandu the King including have been using the card for domestic political advantage. What compounded the Maoists’ problems were their unwillingness to severe links with their armed cadres and also their insistence on rehabilitating them in the armed forces. Tilting towards the north also did them in given the traditional sentiment in such matters.
Now it is to be seen how much flexibility Maoist supremo Prachanda will display on these and related issues, which are complex and inter related. The UN mission failed because the Maoists did not play by the rules of the game and left issues like armed and unarmed cadre strength very vague. The Special Committee that is taking over the functions of the UNMIN under the Maoist-Government accord has a tough task as it settles to monitor Maoist arms and armies and arms of the Nepali Army.
The committee’s mandate is to complete the unfinished UNMIN job in four-five months. Its success rests solely on the Maoists who have agreed to put their People's Liberation Army (PLA) with its nearly 20,000 fighters under the Special Committee along with their arms. On its part the government has pledged to let the army under the surveillance of the panel. A 64-member team, comprising 16 people each from the army, police and armed police force and the PLA will replace the UNMIN monitors at the PLA camps and army barracks.
There is no clarity on the future of PLA at present. Middle Path could be adopted with some going into the army depending on their qualifications and the rest becoming members of a new paramilitary force. It is because whatever be the political compulsions and extraneous considerations, the basic standards of the Nepalese army cannot be diluted.
Nepal has been without a government since June last year. It may not materialise till the end of this month (January). That means Nepali leadership will have to grapple with the complexities of constitution drafting rather quickly to stick to the deadline of May 28. It appears certain that this deadline will be missed.
A consensus amongst the three main parties (NC, UML, and the Maoists) alone will ensure the two-thirds majority required for adopting the statute. It is not easy to achieve with all energies in the next few days focussed on consensus on who should lead the government and on what should be the share of ministerial berths. Already, the Maoist party is staking claim to leadership of the government saying that as the single largest party it is their right.
Nepal needs a decentralized power within a federal structure to address the aspirations of ethnic and marginalized groups. Both the NC and the CPN-UML have actively participated in drafting a federal model in the Constituent Assembly. But both parties face stiff resistance from within to the federal model. They may not be able to backtrack notwithstanding popular opposition to ethnic federalism since it would be an invitation to another round of chaos. Terai based ethnic and regional groups have already threatened to hit the protest button.
Balancing the interests of these groups and the concern of dominant caste groups like the Brahmins and Chhetris, who fear losing out under the new constitutional dispensation will call for a great deal of flexibility.
----- Malladi Rama Rao
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